Tuesday, October 14, 2014

20141010 BBC_Mapping the outbreak of Ebola

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa was first reported in March 2014, and has rapidly become the deadliest occurrence of the disease since its discovery in 1976.
In fact, the current epidemic sweeping across the region has now killed more than all other known Ebola outbreaks combined.
Up to 8 October, 4,033 people had been reported as having died from the disease in five countries; Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Nigeria and the United States. The total number of reported cases is in excess of 8,300.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) admits the figures are underestimates and warns there could be as many as 20,000 cases by November if efforts to tackle the outbreak are not stepped up.

Ebola deaths in Africa

Up to 8 October

4,032
Deaths -probable, confirmed and suspected
(Does not include one death in US)
  • 2,316 Liberia
  • 778 Guinea
  • 930 Sierra Leone
  • 8 Nigeria
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Emergency declared
In August, the United Nations health agency declared an "international public health emergency", saying that a co-ordinated response was essential to halt the spread of the virus.
However, WHO director general Margaret Chan said in September that the "number of patients is moving far faster than the capacity to manage them".
Despite attempts to deploy more health workers and open new Ebola treatment centres in the worst-affected countries, the WHO said that there was still a significant lack of beds in Sierra Leone and Liberia, with more than 3,000 needed.
CountryExisting bed capacityTotal beds neededExtra beds still required
SOURCE: WHO, 8 OCTOBER 2014
Guinea
160
210
50
Liberia
620
2,930
2,310
Sierra Leone
304
1,148
844
The outbreaks in Senegal and Nigeria have been "pretty much contained", as there have been no new cases reported there since 5 September.
According to the WHO, the situation in Guinea also appeared to be stabilising however there appears no indication of a reversal in Sierra Leone and Liberia.
Transmission is continuing in urban areas, with the surge in Liberia driven mainly by a sharp increase in the number of cases reported in the capital, Monrovia.
The situation in Sierra Leone also continues to deteriorate with a sharp increase in the number of newly-reported cases in the capital, Freetown, and its neighbouring districts of Port Loko, Bombali, and Moyamba, which are were placed under quarantine on 25 September.
That means that five of Sierra Leone's 15 districts are on lockdown, with more than a third of the population of six million no longer able to move freely.
Current outbreak
ebola death toll regional map October 4Figures accurate from 4-6 October, depending on country. Death toll in Liberia includes probable, suspect and confirmed cases, while in Sierra Leone and Guinea only confirmed cases are shown
Researchers from the New England Journal of Medicine have traced the outbreak to a two-year-old girl, who died on 6 December 2013 in Meliandou, a small village in south-eastern Guinea.
In March, hospital staff alerted Guinea's Ministry of Health and then the charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF). They reported a mysterious disease in the south-eastern regions of Gueckedou, Macenta, Nzerekore, and Kissidougou.
It caused fever, diarrhoea and vomiting. It also had a high death rate. Of the first 86 cases, 59 people died.
The WHO later confirmed the disease as Ebola.
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Ebola outbreak: Key stories
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Disease spreads
Gueckedou is a major regional trading centre and, by the end of March, Ebola had crossed the border into Liberia and it was confirmed in Sierra Leone in May.
In June, MSF described the Ebola outbreak as out of control.
Nigeria had its first case of the disease in July and in the same month two leading doctors died from Ebola in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Senegal reported its first case of Ebola on 29 August. A young man from Guinea had travelled to Senegal despite having been infected with the virus, officials said.
The first case of the deadly virus diagnosed on US soil was announced on 1 October. Thomas Eric Duncan, 42, who contracted the virus in Liberia before travelling to the US, died on 8 October.
He had not displayed symptoms of the disease until 24 September, five days after his arrival. Ten people with whom he came into contact are being monitored for symptoms.
Cumulative deaths up to 8 October
ebola cumulative death toll chart up to October 8Note: figures have occasionally been revised down as suspect or probable cases are found to be unrelated to Ebola. This does not include one death in the US recorded on 8 October
The WHO has published updates on the spread of the virus in each of the countries affected.
The figures given are for "confirmed, probable and suspected" cases and deaths. They have occasionally been revised down to take account of changes in the countries' reporting methods, for example by excluding the "suspected" cases.
2014 outbreak in context
Ebola occurs in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, though normally fewer than 500 cases occur each year.
No cases at all were reported between 1979 and 1994, however, the 2014 outbreak dwarfs all previous outbreaks.
Past epidemics
Ebola past outbreaks

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